Ontario Housing Market Outlook 2026
Ontario New Listings Retreat While Sales Hold Steady
According to the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) for July 2026, 16,276 homes changed hands across the province, a slight dip of 1.3% from the same month last year. Sales came in 7.3% above the 5-year average for July, even as sellers pulled back noticeably from listing.
- The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark price settled at $749,800, down 3.9% from July 2025. Single-family homes benchmarked at $832,800, a decline of 3.6%, while townhouse and row units fell 6% to $586,600, and the apartment benchmark dropped 6.9% to $490,500.
- New listings numbered 36,945, a reduction of 10.8% from the previous year. Active listings finished the month at 73,890, down 5.1%, though still 20.5% above the 5-year average for July.
- Months of inventory eased to 4.5 from 4.7 a year ago, a level that remains above the long-run July average of 3.1 months.
The provincial average price of $797,486 fell 2.9% year-over-year, a smaller decline than the benchmark. Falling prices are steadily improving affordability: TD Economics tracks its Ontario affordability measure at 0.67 in the second quarter, well back from a 2023 peak near 0.92, and expects further price softness through the second half of 2026 to extend that gain. Working the other way is demand itself, with Ontario’s population growth turning negative in the second quarter, at 0.9% below year-earlier levels, down from 3.6% two years ago.
CREA notes Ontario sat only about half a standard deviation above its own long-term average in July, after spending the first four months of 2026 in conditions that favoured buyers.
Buyers weighing a purchase this fall have more negotiating room than the headline numbers suggest, but the shrinking flow of new supply could change that. Start by comparing current mortgage rates in Ontario, then reach out to our nesto mortgage experts to see what your budget looks like before you start touring homes.
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Ontario Housing Market Highlights
- The average selling price of a home in Ontario decreased by 4.6% year-over-year to $753,300 in June.
- The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario decreased by 4.2% year-over-year to $836,900 in June.
- The average selling price of a townhouse/multiplex in Ontario decreased by 6.6% year-over-year to $592,200 in June.
- The average selling price of a condo in Ontario decreased by 8% year-over-year to $491,500 in June.
- The average rent in Ontario decreased by 4.5% year-over-year to $2,247 for June.
- August 20, 2026: Today’s lowest mortgage rate in Ontario is 4.24% for a 5-year fixed.
Data from the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA) indicates that the average price of resale residential homes sold across Ontario in June was $753,300, and it decreased by 4.6% compared to a year ago.
OREA reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) of 44%, indicating Balanced market conditions in Ontario for June.
Average Home Prices in Ontario by Property Type
Composite Home Prices
The average selling price of a home in Ontario was $753,300 for the month of June, that’s decreased by 0.5% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, Ontario home prices have decreased 4.6% year-over-year.
Single-family Home Prices
The average selling price of a single-family home in Ontario was $836,900 for the month of June, that’s decreased by 0.5% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, single-family home prices in Ontario have decreased by 4.2% year-over-year.
Townhouse and Multiplex Prices
The average selling price of a townhouse in Ontario was $592,200 for the month of June, that’s decreased by 0.8% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a townhouse in Ontario has decreased by 6.6% year-over-year.
Condo Prices
The average selling price of a condo in Ontario was $491,500 for the month of June, that’s decreased by 0.3% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, the price of a condo in Ontario has decreased 8% year-over-year.
Ontario Home Sales, New Listings and Market Conditions
Transactions and Number of Sales
The number of sales in Ontario was 16,276 during June, that’s decreased by 9.8% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, sales in Ontario have decreased by 0.4% year-over-year.
New Listings
The number of new listings in Ontario was 36,945 during June, that’s decreased by 15% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, new listings in Ontario have decreased by 8.7% year-over-year.
Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR)
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in Ontario was 44% during June, indicating a Balanced. On a monthly basis, that’s increased by 6% month-over-month. Ontario’s yearly sales-to-new-listings ratio has increased by 9.1% year-over-year.
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) measures the number of home sales compared to new listings. An SNLR below 40% indicates a buyer’s market, where buyers hold the upper hand and greater negotiating power. An SNLR between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, while an SNLR of over 60% is considered a seller’s market.
Annual Changes to Regional Composite Home Prices in Ontario
Annual Changes to the Composite Home Price in Ontario
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Ontario Market Rents Snapshot
The average rent in Ontario was $2,247 for the month of June, which decreased by 4.5% year-over-year.
The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $1,965 for the month of June, which decreased by 4.5% year-over-year.
The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Ontario was $2,434 for the month of June, which decreased by 4.5% year-over-year.
Average Rent by City in Canada
| Rank | City | Total Average | 1 Bedroom | 2 Bedrooms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Vancouver | $3,039 | $2,588 | $3,458 |
| 2 | Vancouver | $2,686 | $2,377 | $3,255 |
| 3 | Toronto | $2,580 | $2,234 | $2,947 |
| 4 | North York | $2,565 | $2,188 | $2,743 |
| 5 | Burnaby | $2,543 | $2,159 | $2,802 |
| 6 | Coquitlam | $2,526 | $2,134 | $2,753 |
| 7 | Oakville | $2,517 | $2,198 | $2,819 |
| 8 | Kanata | $2,514 | $2,230 | $2,751 |
| 9 | Etobicoke | $2,439 | $2,094 | $2,624 |
| 10 | Halifax | $2,372 | $2,071 | $2,616 |
| 11 | Burlington | $2,370 | $2,075 | $2,448 |
| 12 | Mississauga | $2,357 | $2,052 | $2,445 |
| 13 | Vaughan | $2,319 | $2,048 | $2,580 |
| 14 | Victoria | $2,307 | $2,016 | $2,682 |
| 15 | Brampton | $2,285 | $2,001 | $2,379 |
| 16 | Langley | $2,239 | $1,899 | $2,457 |
| 17 | Ajax | $2,234 | $1,878 | $2,218 |
| 18 | Guelph | $2,217 | $1,905 | $2,280 |
| 19 | Scarborough | $2,213 | $1,872 | $2,288 |
| 20 | New Westminster | $2,190 | $1,880 | $2,656 |
| 21 | Surrey | $2,167 | $1,794 | $2,239 |
| 22 | Ottawa | $2,164 | $1,960 | $2,449 |
| 23 | Barrie | $2,155 | $1,863 | $2,108 |
| 24 | Waterloo | $2,118 | $1,915 | $2,234 |
| 25 | Kingston | $2,100 | $1,827 | $2,271 |
| 26 | Laval | $2,096 | $1,732 | $2,356 |
| 27 | Nanaimo | $2,092 | $1,835 | $2,290 |
| 28 | Kelowna | $2,091 | $1,808 | $2,248 |
| 29 | East York | $2,050 | $1,791 | $2,312 |
| 30 | Cambridge | $2,042 | $1,847 | $2,139 |
| 31 | Greater Sudbury | $2,021 | $1,708 | $2,072 |
| 32 | Oshawa | $2,002 | $1,740 | $2,017 |
| 33 | Airdrie | $1,987 | $1,441 | $1,804 |
| 34 | Peterborough | $1,977 | $1,742 | $1,957 |
| 35 | Brossard | $1,970 | $1,722 | $2,199 |
| 36 | Kamloops | $1,956 | $1,731 | $2,042 |
| 37 | Montreal | $1,941 | $1,769 | $2,255 |
| 38 | Niagara Falls | $1,940 | $1,600 | $1,980 |
| 39 | Brantford | $1,936 | $1,807 | $2,043 |
| 40 | Hamilton | $1,929 | $1,654 | $2,235 |
| 41 | London | $1,924 | $1,670 | $2,058 |
| 42 | Kitchener | $1,908 | $1,684 | $2,078 |
| 43 | Calgary | $1,883 | $1,513 | $1,847 |
| 44 | St. Catharines | $1,817 | $1,558 | $1,931 |
| 45 | Welland | $1,779 | $1,522 | $1,985 |
| 46 | Gatineau | $1,775 | $1,592 | $1,852 |
| 47 | Côte Saint-Luc | $1,704 | $1,441 | $1,997 |
| 48 | Windsor | $1,685 | $1,492 | $1,921 |
| 49 | Sarnia | $1,680 | $1,495 | $1,728 |
| 50 | Winnipeg | $1,663 | $1,463 | $1,759 |
| 51 | Edmonton | $1,617 | $1,282 | $1,638 |
| 52 | Red Deer | $1,536 | $1,293 | $1,509 |
| 53 | Lethbridge | $1,519 | $1,342 | $1,571 |
| 54 | Quebec City | $1,516 | $1,279 | $1,611 |
| 55 | Saskatoon | $1,514 | $1,310 | $1,537 |
| 56 | Regina | $1,444 | $1,300 | $1,540 |
| 57 | Fort McMurray | $1,412 | $1,221 | $1,426 |
| 58 | Medicine Hat | $1,359 | $1,237 | $1,380 |
| 59 | Lloydminster | $1,348 | $1,072 | $1,386 |
| 60 | St. John's | $1,215 | $1,105 | $1,314 |
Source: Rentals.ca Network Data & Urbanation Inc.
Average Rent by Province in Canada
Rental Price Growth by Housing Type
How Does Renting Compare With Homeownership in Ontario?
Each $100,000 in mortgage balance costs an average of $530.91 per month on nesto’s lowest fixed 5-year rate at 4.24% and $495.28 per month on nesto’s lowest adjustable 5-year rate at 3.45%.
For each $100,000 in mortgage balance, a 0.25% change in Canada’s policy rate impacts the monthly payment by $13.42. The interest rates used for calculation are those offered on insured purchases with less than a 20% down payment on a 25-year amortization. Canada’s policy rate is 2.25%, and nesto’s prime rate is 4.45%.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About the Ontario Housing Market in 2026
Are Ontario Housing Market Conditions Favouring Buyers or Sellers in 2026?
Ontario housing market conditions sit close to balanced in 2026, having moved back toward the middle after four months that clearly favoured buyers. Months of inventory eased to 4.5 in July from 4.7 a year earlier, though that is still well above the long-run July average of 3.1 months, and active listings remain about 20.5% above the 5-year average. CREA places Ontario roughly half a standard deviation above its own long-term average, meaning buyers have more room to negotiate than usual without sellers losing control of the market.
Are Ontario Home Prices Going Up or Down in 2026?
Ontario home prices are falling in 2026 on both measures, unlike the national picture, where the two diverge. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark was $749,800 in July, down 3.9% from a year earlier, and the provincial average price was $797,486, down 2.9%. CREA forecasts that Ontario will finish the year with an average price decline of less than 1%, implying the pace of decline is slowing rather than reversing. Ontario is also the only province CREA expects to post a sales increase in 2026.
Is Housing Affordability in Ontario Improving in 2026?
Housing affordability in Ontario is improving, and it is improving faster than in most of the country because prices are falling while incomes are not. TD Economics tracks its Ontario affordability measure at 0.67 in the second quarter, well back from a 2023 peak near 0.92, and expects further price softness through the second half of 2026 to extend that gain. Qualifying remains the harder part of the equation, since the mortgage stress test still requires borrowers to qualify at a rate above the one they will actually pay.
Why Are Ontario New Listings Falling Faster Than Sales?
New listings in Ontario are falling faster than sales because sellers are withdrawing from the market more decisively than buyers are. July new listings numbered 36,945, down 10.8% from a year earlier, against a sales decline of just 1.3%. Active listings finished the month at 73,890, down 5.1%. When supply contracts faster than demand, the inventory overhang that gave buyers leverage through the spring begins to erode, which is why months of inventory fell even in a month when sales were lower.
Which Ontario Property Type Has Fallen the Most in 2026?
Apartments have fallen the most among any Ontario property type in 2026. The July apartment benchmark was $490,500, down 6.9% year over year, followed by townhouse and row units at $586,600, down 6%. Single-family homes held up best at $832,800, down 3.6%. The pattern matches the national one, where several years of condominium completions arrived just as international migration slowed, leaving the higher-density segment with the deepest price adjustment.
What Is Limiting Ontario Housing Demand in 2026?
Population is the main factor limiting housing demand in Ontario in 2026. Provincial population growth turned negative in the second quarter, running 0.9% below year-earlier levels after reaching 3.6% two years ago, which removes household formation the market had been built to absorb. Qualification is the second constraint because the mortgage stress test caps buying power, even when prices have fallen. Borrowing costs are no longer the obstacle they were, with the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25% since October.
Is It Cheaper to Rent or Buy in Ontario in 2026?
Renting is still cheaper month-to-month than buying across most of Ontario in 2026, but the gap has narrowed from both sides. Ontario’s asking rents fell 3.7% year over year in July, even as the province posted the largest monthly rent gain in the country at 0.8%, while home prices are down on both benchmark and average measures. Which option costs less over time depends on how long it takes to save the down payment, how long you plan to stay, and the mortgage rate you qualify for.
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